Sunday, July 7, 2019

A Letter to Trump:China is not an Enemy

By  M. Taylor Fravel , J. Stapleton Roy , Michael D. Swaine , Susan A. Thornton and Ezra Vogel

Washington Post2019-7-3  
Dear President Trump and members of Congress:
        We are members of the scholarly, foreign policy, military and business communities, overwhelmingly from the United States, including many who have focused on Asia throughout our professional careers. We are deeply concerned about the growing deterioration in U.S. relations with China, which we believe does not serve American or global interests. Although we are very troubled by Beijing’s recent behavior, which requires a strong response, we also believe that many U.S. actions are contributing directly to the downward spiral in relations.
        The following seven propositions represent our collective views on China, the problems in the U.S. approach to China and the basic elements of a more effective U.S. policy. Our institutional affiliations are provided for identification purposes only.
        1. China’s troubling behavior in recent years — including its turn toward greater domestic repression, increased state control over private firms, failure to live up to several of its trade commitments, greater efforts to control foreign opinion and more aggressive foreign policy — raises serious challenges for the rest of the world. These challenges require a firm and effective U.S. response, but the current approach to China is fundamentally counterproductive.
        2. We do not believe Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone. Although its rapid economic and military growth has led Beijing toward a more assertive international role, many Chinese officials and other elites know that a moderate, pragmatic and genuinely cooperative approach with the West serves China’s interests. Washington’s adversarial stance toward Beijing weakens the influence of those voices in favor of assertive nationalists. With the right balance of competition and cooperation, U.S. actions can strengthen those Chinese leaders who want China to play a constructive role in world affairs.
        3. U.S. efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy will damage the United States’ international role and reputation and undermine the economic interests of all nations. U.S. opposition will not prevent the continued expansion of the Chinese economy, a greater global market share for Chinese companies and an increase in China’s role in world affairs. Moreover, the United States cannot significantly slow China’s rise without damaging itself. If the United States presses its allies to treat China as an economic and political enemy, it will weaken its relations with those allies and could end up isolating itself rather than Beijing.
        4. The fear that Beijing will replace the United States as the global leader is exaggerated. Most other countries have no interest in such an outcome, and it is not clear that Beijing itself sees this goal as necessary or feasible. Moreover, a government intent on limiting the information and opportunities available to its own citizens and harshly repressing its ethnic minorities will not garner meaningful international support nor succeed in attracting global talent. The best American response to these practices is to work with our allies and partners to create a more open and prosperous world in which China is offered the opportunity to participate. Efforts to isolate China will simply weaken those Chinese intent on developing a more humane and tolerant society.
        5. Although China has set a goal of becoming a world-class military by midcentury, it faces immense hurdles to operating as a globally dominant military power. However, Beijing’s growing military capabilities have already eroded the United States’ long-standing military preeminence in the Western Pacific. The best way to respond to this is not to engage in an open-ended arms race centered on offensive, deep-strike weapons and the virtually impossible goal of reasserting full-spectrum U.S. dominance up to China’s borders. A wiser policy is to work with allies to maintain deterrence, emphasizing defensive-oriented, area denial capabilities, resiliency and the ability to frustrate attacks on U.S. or allied territory, while strengthening crisis-management efforts with Beijing.
        6. Beijing is seeking to weaken the role of Western democratic norms within the global order. But it is not seeking to overturn vital economic and other components of that order from which China itself has benefited for decades. Indeed, China’s engagement in the international system is essential to the system’s survival and to effective action on common problems such as climate change. The United States should encourage Chinese participation in new or modified global regimes in which rising powers have a greater voice. A zero-sum approach to China’s role would only encourage Beijing to either disengage from the system or sponsor a divided global order that would be damaging to Western interests.
        7. In conclusion, a successful U.S. approach to China must focus on creating enduring coalitions with other countries in support of economic and security objectives. It must be based on a realistic appraisal of Chinese perceptions, interests, goals and behavior; an accurate match of U.S. and allied resources with policy goals and interests; and a rededication of U.S. efforts to strengthen its own capacity to serve as a model for others. Ultimately, the United States’ interests are best served by restoring its ability to compete effectively in a changing world and by working alongside other nations and international organizations rather than by promoting a counterproductive effort to undermine and contain China’s engagement with the world.
        We believe that the large number of signers of this open letter clearly indicates that there is no single Washington consensus endorsing an overall adversarial stance toward China, as some believe exists.
        M. Taylor Fravel is a professor of political science at MIT. J. Stapleton Roy is a distinguished scholar at the Wilson Center and a former U.S. ambassador to China. Michael D. Swaine is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Susan A. Thornton is a senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center and a former acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Ezra Vogel is a professor emeritus at Harvard University.
        The above individuals circulated the letter, which was signed by the following:
James Acton, co-director, Nuclear Policy Program and Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Craig Allen, former U.S. ambassador to Brunei from 20142018
Andrew Bacevich, co-founder, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Jeffrey A. Bader, former senior director for East Asia on National Security Council 2009-2011 and fellow, Brookings Institution
C. Fred Bergsten, senior fellow and director emeritus, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Jan Berris, vice president, National Committee on United States-China Relations
Dennis J. Blasko, former U.S. Army Attaché to China, 1992-1996
Pieter Bottelier, visiting scholar, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
Ian Bremmer, president, Eurasia Group
Richard Bush, Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, Brookings Institution
Jerome A. Cohen, faculty director, US-Asia Law Institute, New York University
Warren I. Cohen, distinguished university professor emeritus, University of Maryland
Bernard Cole, former U.S. Navy captain
James F. Collins, U.S. ambassador to the Russian Federation 1997-2001
Gerald L Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus, Columbia University
Toby Dalton, co-director, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Robert Daly, director, Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S., Wilson Center
Michael C. Desch, Packey J. Dee Professor of International Affairs and director of the Notre Dame International Security Center
Mac Destler, professor emeritus, University of Maryland School of Public Policy
Bruce Dickson, professor of political science and international affairs, George Washington University
David Dollar, senior fellow, Brookings Institution
Peter Dutton, senior fellow, U.S.-Asia Law Institute; adjunct professor, New York University School of Law
Robert Einhorn, senior fellow, Brookings Institution; former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, 1999-2001
Amitai Etzioni, University Professor and Professor of International Affairs, George Washington University
Thomas Fingar, Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University; former deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, 2005-2008
Mary Gallagher, political science professor and director of the Lieberthal-Rogel Center for Chinese Studies, University of Michigan
John Gannon, adjunct professor, Georgetown University; former chairman of the National Intelligence Council, 1997-2001
Avery Goldstein, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, University of Pennsylvania
Steven M. Goldstein, associate of the Fairbank Center; director of the Taiwan Studies Workshop at Harvard University
David F. Gordon, senior advisor, International Institute of Strategic Studies; former director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department, 2007-2009
Philip H. Gordon, Mary and David Boies Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations; former special assistant to the president and Coordinator for the Middle East and assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs
Morton H. Halperin, former director of Policy Planning Staff at State Department, 1998-2001
Lee Hamilton, former congressman; former president and director of the Wilson Center
Clifford A. Hart Jr., former U.S. consul general to Hong Kong and Macau, 2013-2016
Paul Heer, adjunct professor, George Washington University; former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, 2007-2015
Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technologys Center for International Studies
Ambassador Carla A. Hills, former United States Trade Representative, 1989-1993; chair & CEO Hills & Company, International Consultants
Jamie P. Horsley, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School
Yukon Huang, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Frank Jannuzi, president and CEO, Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation
Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor and Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Marvin Kalb, nonresident senior fellow, Brookings Institution
Mickey Kantor, former secretary of commerce,1996-1997; U.S. trade representative, 1993-1996
Robert Kapp, president, Robert A. Kapp & Associates, Inc.; former president, U.S.-China Business Council; former president, Washington Council on International Trade
Albert Keidel, adjunct graduate professor, George Washington University; former deputy director of the Office of East Asian Nations at the Treasury Department, 2001-2004
Robert O. Keohane, professor of International Affairs emeritus, Princeton University
William Kirby, Spangler Family Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School; T. M. Chang Professor of China Studies at Harvard University
Helena Kolenda, program director for Asia, Henry Luce Foundation
Charles Kupchan, professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University; senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
David M. Lampton, professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Oksenberg Rholen Fellow, Stanford University Asia-Pacific Research Center; former president, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
Nicholas Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Chung Min Lee, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Herbert Levin, former staff member for China on National Security Council and Policy Planning Council
Cheng Li, director and senior fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution
Kenneth Lieberthal, professor emeritus, University of Michigan; former Asia senior director, National Security Council, 1998-2000
Yawei Liu, director of China Program, The Carter Center
Jessica Mathews, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
James McGregor, chairman, Greater China, APCO Worldwide
John McLaughlin, distinguished practitioner in residence, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; former deputy director and acting director of the CIA, 2000-2004
Andrew Mertha, Hyman Professor and Director of the China Program, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
Alice Lyman Miller, research fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Mike Mochizuki, Japan-U.S. Relations Chair in Memory of Gaston Sigur, George Washington University
Michael Nacht, Thomas and Alison Schneider Professor of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley; former assistant secretary of defense for global strategic affairs, 2009-2010
Moises Naim, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Joseph Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor emeritus and former dean, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Kevin OBrien, political science professor and director of Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley
Jean Oi, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Stanford University
Stephen A. Orlins, president, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
William Overholt, senior research fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Douglas Paal, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Margaret M. Pearson, Dr. Horace V. and Wilma E. Harrison Distinguished Professor, University of Maryland, College Park
Peter C. Perdue, professor of history, Yale University
Elizabeth J. Perry , Henry Rosovsky Professor of Government, Harvard University; director, Harvard-Yenching Institute
Daniel W Piccuta, former deputy chief of mission and acting ambassador, Beijing
Thomas Pickering, former under secretary of state for political affairs, 1997-2000; former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 1989-1992
Paul R. Pillar , nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University
Jonathan D. Pollack, nonresident senior fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; director, MIT Security Studies Program
Shelley Rigger, Brown Professor of East Asian Politics, Davidson College
Charles S. Robb, former U.S. senator (1989-2001) and former chairman of the East Asia subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; governor of Virginia from 1982 to 1986
Robert S. Ross, professor of political science, Boston College
Scott D. Sagan, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
Gary Samore, senior executive director, Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University
Richard J. Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science and director, Massachusetts Institute of Technologys Center for International Studies
David Shear, former assistant secretary of defense, 2014-2016; former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam
Anne-Marie Slaughter, former director of policy planning, State Department, 2009-2011; Bert G. Kerstetter 66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
Richard Sokolsky, nonresident senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
James Steinberg, former deputy secretary of state, 2009-2011
Michael Szonyi, Frank Wen-Hsiung Wu Memorial Professor of Chinese History Director, Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University
Strobe Talbott, former deputy secretary of state, 1994-2001
Anne F. Thurston, former senior research professor, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
Andrew G. Walder, Denise OLeary and Kent Thiry Professor, School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University
Graham Webster, coordinating editor, Stanford-New America DigiChina Project
David A. Welch, University Research Chair, Balsillie School of International Affairs
Daniel B. Wright, president and CEO, GreenPoint Group; former managing director for China and the Strategic Economic Dialogue, Treasury Department